IgG Suppression Depth as a Study-level Surrogate for MG-ADL Response in FcRn Antagonists for Generalized Myasthenia Gravis: A Bayesian Meta-regression and Surrogate Threshold Analysis
Shankar Biswas1, Sindhu Vasireddy3, Yashasvi Srivastava2, Jignen Prajapati4, Simran Arora5, Anagha Shankar6, Sai Pratibha Yandamuri7
1Internal Medicine, Ivano Frankivsk National Medical University, 2Ivano Frankivsk National Medical University, 3Neurology, NMC Specialty Hospital, 4Internal Medicine, Gujarat University, 5University of Debrecen, 6Humanitas University, 7Tbilisi State Medical University
Objective:
To determine whether peak IgG suppression depth constitutes a valid study-level surrogate for MG-ADL treatment effect across FcRn antagonist trials in generalized myasthenia gravis, and to derive a surrogate threshold effect for early-phase dose-selection guidance.
Background:
Whether the depth of IgG suppression produced by FcRn antagonists predicts the magnitude of clinical response in generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG) at the trial level is unknown.
Design/Methods:

A Bayesian inverse-variance-weighted meta-regression of MG-ADL treatment effect on peak IgG suppression was conducted across active arms from randomized placebo-controlled trials of FcRn antagonists in adults with gMG. R²-trial was estimated using the Bayesian R² formulation, and the surrogate threshold effect (STE) was derived from the posterior predictive distribution. Prespecified sensitivity analyses restricted the dataset to a low risk-of-bias subset and excluded one arm with pharmacodynamic-clinical timing mismatch.

Results:
Five trials contributed 9 active arms (n = 274) covering efgartigimod, rozanolixizumab, nipocalimab, and batoclimab. Each 1% increase in peak IgG suppression was associated with a −0.035-point change in MG-ADL treatment effect (95% CrI, −0.098 to 0.030; posterior probability of a negative slope, 0.86). R²-trial was 0.24 (95% CrI, 0.00 to 0.55), below the prespecified surrogacy threshold of ≥ 0.50. The STE was 57.5% IgG suppression. A drug-level dummy did not improve fit (LOO ΔELPD, −0.8; SE, 1.2). The low risk-of-bias subset of 6 arms produced a consistent slope of −0.044 (95% CrI, −0.118 to 0.035).
Conclusions:

Peak IgG suppression depth was directionally associated with MG-ADL treatment effect but did not meet criteria for a study-level surrogate. The 57.5% STE provides a quantitative anchor for early-phase dose selection; MG-ADL should remain the primary clinical endpoint in confirmatory FcRn-antagonist trials.

Generative AI Usage
No, did not use generative AI in the drafting or editing in this abstract.
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