Objective:

This study examined national trends of cerebrovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the US from 1999 to 2023 and anticipated future trends through 2040 using age-adjusted data and ARIMA modeling.

Background:

Despite advances in prevention and acute care, cerebrovascular disease continues to be a leading cause of death in the U.S. Even if death rates decreased in recent decades, modern figures suggest potential stagnation or reversal. CVD mortality forecasting is crucial for health policy and planning. Using national data for the period from 1999 to 2023, this report looked at long-term trends and reached forecasts up until 2040.

Design/Methods:

We reviewed CDC WONDER death certificate data on individuals 45 and over with CVD (ICD-10 I60–I69). Age-adjusted mortality rates were standardized to the 2000 U.S. population. Trends were estimated with Joinpoint regression, and forecasts produced with ARIMA models, confirmed by cross-validation and fit statistics.

Results:

There was a significant decline in CVD mortality from 1999 to 2017, particularly from 2002 to 2009. After a plateau, there was a slight uptick from 2018 through 2021, and then a further decline through 2023. The ARIMA modeling projected national mortality rates to decline from 188 per 100,000 in 2024 to 125 per 100,000 by 2040, with an accelerated annual percent decline and no indication of trend reversal.

Conclusions:

CVD mortality in the United States is expected to increasingly decline through 2040, with a faster rate of improvement than it has in the past. While these results underscore the positive effect of progress in the prevention and treatment of stroke, ongoing monitoring should be made of disparities and new emerging risks. Forecasting models can be useful when you form policy and in future health care planning.