Retrospective Mortality Analysis of Hereditary Ataxia in the United States (2000–2020) and Forecast to 2050 Using ARIMA
Muhammad Junaid Iqbal1, Fiza Wali2, Laraib Israr3, Noor Ullah Khan4, Hanzala Ahmed Farooqi5, Fatima Naveed6, Areeba Kabir7, Gianluca Morganti1, Anastasia Ricci1, Maria Nawaz8, Michele Menotta1
1University of Urbino “Carlo Bo”, Via Saffi 2, 61029 Urbino (PU), Italy, 2Riphah International University (Islamic International Medical College), 3International Islamic University Islamabad, 44000 Islamabad, Pakistan, 4University of Porto, Porto, Portugal, 5Islamic International Medical College, Riphah International University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan., 6Rawal Institute of Health Sciences, Islamabad, 7Royal Devon University Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust, 8College of Education, DePaul University, Chicago, Illinois, USA
Objective:
To quantify United States mortality trends in hereditary ataxias, compare rates by sex, race, census region, and urbanization, and forecast burden to 2050.
Background:
Population level mortality patterns for hereditary ataxias in the United States remain poorly characterized, which limits planning for care and research.
Design/Methods:
We analyzed United States Multiple Cause of Death data from CDC WONDER, years 2000 to 2020. Deaths were identified with ICD 10 code G11, hereditary ataxias. Age adjusted mortality rates, per 100,000, used the 2000 United States standard population with 95 percent confidence intervals. Temporal trends were evaluated with joinpoint regression to estimate annual percent change. Forecasts to 2050 used autoregressive integrated moving average, with sensitivity analysis using linear regression. Analyses were stratified by sex, race, census region, and National Center for Health Statistics urbanization categories.
Results:
National age adjusted mortality increased across 2000 to 2020, with a significant positive annual percent change. Rates rose in both sexes and were consistently higher in males. Relative increases were largest among Black or African American individuals and in the West region. Directionally similar increases were observed across urbanization categories. Forecasting projected continued growth in mortality through 2050. Sensitivity analyses produced qualitatively similar trends, with wider uncertainty in smaller strata.
Conclusions:
Mortality associated with hereditary ataxias rose in the United States during 2000 to 2020, and forecasts indicate continued increases. Findings point out to growing clinical and public health needs. Better phenotyping and coding, earlier diagnosis, and registry linked surveillance could refine estimates and inform service planning.
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